Labour’s drift to the right under Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar hasn’t broadened its appeal—it’s limited it. A new Norstat/Sunday Times poll shows Scottish Labour plummeting to its worst projected seat tally in the history of devolution. The SNP is surging ahead under First Minister John Swinney, and the Reform Party is making significant gains.
Labour’s Collapse
Just months ago, Anas Sarwar was the favourite for First Minister after Labour’s UK-wide success in July’s general election. But dissatisfaction with Starmer’s right-wing policies—such as cuts to winter fuel payments and mishandling of scandals—has damaged Labour in Scotland. The party’s constituency vote for Holyrood is at a meagre 21%. It is only 18% on the regional list. This marks a dramatic decline.
This collapse has allowed Reform, led by Nigel Farage, to siphon off pro-UK voters from both Labour and the Tories. This shift amplifies Labour’s woes. Polling analysis predicts Labour will secure just 20 seats in the 2026 Holyrood election. This would be their worst-ever showing. Reform is projected to win 13 seats. This result will cement Reform’s position as a growing force in Scottish politics.
Reform: A Threat to Scotland’s Values
The rise of Reform is deeply troubling for Scotland’s progressive identity. Nigel Farage has openly aligned himself with Donald Trump, even travelling to the U.S. to campaign for the former president. Reform mirrors Trump’s politics of division, championing anti-immigrant and anti-trans policies that threaten Scotland’s culture of acceptance and inclusion.
Scotland has long prided itself on being a welcoming nation. Its policies reflect a commitment to equality and human rights. Reform’s rhetoric and agenda represent a stark departure from this ethos. Their anti-immigrant stance risks undermining Scotland’s vibrant multicultural communities, while their attacks on trans rights jeopardize hard-fought progress toward equality.
Farage’s embrace of Trump’s politics raises serious concerns about the influence of far-right populism on Scotland’s future. Reform’s platform is not just a threat to Labour and the Tories. It’s a danger to the very fabric of Scotland’s progressive values.
SNP and Greens Strengthen
Meanwhile, Swinney’s SNP continues to solidify its base, polling at 37% in constituency votes and 32% on the regional lists. This resurgence follows a budget that reversed cuts imposed by Labour. It reaffirmed commitments to progressive policies. Examples include scrapping the two-child cap by 2026. A narrow pro-independence majority in Holyrood is within reach, further boosting Swinney’s position.
Right-wing critics often dismiss the Scottish Greens. However, they remain steady with seven projected seats. They bolster the independence movement and Scotland’s commitment to social justice.
What Went Wrong for Labour?
Labour’s attempts to court Conservative voters by adopting right-wing policies have backfired spectacularly. Cuts to social support have alienated Labour’s traditional base. Tax increases on ordinary people have furthered this alienation. Additionally, the perception of being indistinguishable from the Tories has not attracted new voters.
Even Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, often cited as an impartial observer, acknowledged the depths of Labour’s woes. “Labour’s general election success in July raised high hopes. Many believed it would help pave the way for Anas Sarwar to become First Minister in May 2026. These hopes have rapidly evaporated. The latest Norstat poll suggests the party’s support has dropped significantly. This is their lowest level since the partygate scandals over three years ago.”
Reform’s Rise and Labour’s Missed Opportunity
Reform’s rise as a viable third force shows Labour’s failure. Labour did not capitalize on Scotland’s discontent with the status quo. By pivoting rightward, Labour created a vacuum that Reform and the SNP have eagerly filled. Reform’s Trump-inspired, hard-right populism has struck a chord with disillusioned voters, while Labour appears out of touch.
Yet, this rise comes at a cost. Reform’s divisive politics threaten to undo Scotland’s hard-won reputation as a progressive and inclusive nation. Their anti-immigrant policies clash with Scotland’s aspirations for equality. Their hostility toward LGBTQ+ rights contradicts these ideals. Additionally, their alignment with Trump’s authoritarian playbook is incompatible with Scotland’s values of fairness.
Conclusion
Labour’s rightward turn has alienated its base, eroded trust, and left the party vulnerable to insurgent forces like Reform. In contrast, the SNP’s progressive stance continues to energize its supporters. Unless Labour changes direction, it risks a permanent decline in Scotland. The party must reconnect with its core values. If not, voters face a stark choice between the independence movement and Farage’s Trumpian populism.
The stakes are high. Reform’s agenda doesn’t just threaten Labour’s electoral chances—it endangers Scotland’s progressive legacy. If voters let Reform’s politics of fear take root, the country could lose its inclusive and welcoming society. It has worked so hard to build this. Labour’s failures have opened the door to this dangerous movement. It’s now up to progressive Scots to ensure that the door is firmly closed.
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